Pak Sahafat – While examining the prospects of the Iran-Saudi talks from the perspective of several political analysts in the region, the Arab 21 news website wrote: The remarks of the Iranian and Saudi foreign ministers and the exchange of positive messages between the two countries following several rounds of talks in Iraq and Oman have raised questions about the progress of these talks.
Mubarak al-Ati, a Saudi writer and political analyst, says: Saudi Arabia and Iran spent more than a year in five rounds of security consultations in Baghdad mediated by Iraq, which shows that the two countries are really moving forward, but this process is very slow due to mutual distrust.
Al-Ati in an interview with the Arabic website 21 added: But the achievements of the fifth round of consultations, presented in the form of a 10-point document, were a vision of real progress, and promised an imminent meeting of the two countries’ foreign ministers in Baghdad or Muscat, which could mark a new chapter in relations.
According to him, the remarks of the two sides show the relative mutual satisfaction of the two sides in the talks and raised hopes for the next round of talks, so that this time diplomatic consultations are promising for a meeting at the level of the two countries’ foreign ministers.
He clarified: The remarks of the foreign ministers of the two countries show the determination to continue these consultations, but the atmosphere of mutual distrust in the implementation of the results of the talks is a major obstacle in this regard.
The analyst stated: Riyadh and Tehran need more time and more serious consultations, as well as an international mediator who can somehow guarantee the implementation of the results.
In the end, he said: There are growing signs that the two countries’ foreign ministers will meet soon and that diplomatic relations will resume, especially as we approach the Hajj season, which could pave the way for an agreement.
Emad al-Jubouri, another writer and political analyst, claims that Iran’s position is a real obstacle to the progress of negotiations with the Saudi side.
He claims that Iran has reached an agreement with the United States in the framework of regional foreign policy, ignoring Israel, while the Saudi side and the Arab countries in the region are seeking to achieve their desired stability in the region, including in the economic and trade fields.
According to him, after several rounds of talks between the two sides, the main problem now is that the Saudis do not want these talks and the results to be only bilateral (Tehran-Riyadh only). “Rather, they want the problems between Tehran and all the countries in the region to be resolved in a complete package.”
He added: On the other hand, Iran does not want to resolve these minor issues in one meeting, but wants to proceed with each case separately, and this shows that the next meeting of the ministers of the two countries is only a meeting and only to melt the ice of diplomatic relations between the two countries.
He mentioned: Any expert or analyst on Iran-Arab relations who pursues the Arab-Iranian issue knows that Tehran is not backing down from regional policy and its achievements in the four Arab countries. They just want to buy some time, but a decision to change the whole regional policy.
Talal Atrisi, another political analyst, believes that Tehran-Riyadh relations are improving, although the negotiation process is slow and meetings are intermittent, given the tensions of recent years and the lack of trust and bilateral disputes.
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Saudi Arabia and Iran have more in common than their differences
He said: The region is the scene of new equations that impose the need for a change of perspective on the parties, and this means the progress of negotiations.
Atrisi continued: Iran has repeatedly spoken of its readiness to establish good and constructive relations with neighboring countries, as all Iranian officials at the presidential and foreign ministerial levels have emphasized the priority of improving regional relations and security in the Persian Gulf without the presence of foreigners.
According to him, on the other hand, Saudi Arabia is watching the world today, and it seems that its trust in the United States of America, which in previous years has been pressuring the country not to normalize relations with Tehran, has been severed.
The Saudis have also realized that they cannot count on US action to change the situation in Iran in the region, to blockade it or to isolate Tehran.
He finally stated the reasons mentioned above: Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman said that Iran is our neighbor and we should cooperate and coexist with it, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ibn Farhan, also stated that the process is positive and we seek to improve and develop relations, that is, we can conclude that in Tehran relations Riyadh situation is moving in a positive direction.
He added: It is clear that the countries of the region seek to establish and maintain good relations, this approach is necessary not only to solve economic problems – for example in Iran – but also to continue the current ceasefire in Yemen – for Saudi Arabia – and prevent Ansarullah missile and drone strikes.
The CEO of the Persian Gulf Analysis Company in Washington, Giorgio Cafeiro, also said that with the Saudis losing confidence in the US commitment to stability and security in the Persian Gulf and the lack of a strong international player to fill the US gap, Riyadh seems to have concluded that more diplomatic engagement with Iran would benefit Riyadh.
He mentioned: The resumption of Houthi missile and drone strikes against Saudi Arabia undermines the 2030 vision horizon program, which is very important for Muhammad bin Salman and the Saudi people.
He went on to claim that if the nuclear talks in Vienna fail, Iran could use Yemen as an arena to create more trouble for its enemies, and that Saudi Arabia does not want Tehran to continue to use this tactic as a threat to Saudi security.
He emphasized: If Iran can use its influence over the Houthis to pressure insurgent groups in Yemen to extend the ceasefire and stop attacks on Saudi facilities, it will convince Riyadh that a diplomatic approach to Iran will be more positive and effective.
The possibility of a transfer of power in Saudi Arabia
Last week, Reuters quoted a Saudi source as saying that the transfer of power in Saudi Arabia was imminent, citing the presence of Prince Abdul Aziz bin Ahmed in a delegation accompanying Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who had traveled to the UAE to offer condolences.
This raises questions about the impact of the transfer of power to the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia on the progress of the Tehran-Riyadh talks. Is the young prince seeking to resolve all of Riyadh’s problems with neighboring countries and the region before taking office?
In response to this question, political analyst Emad al-Jubouri says: As is the usual trend of the royal families in the Persian Gulf, and according to the behavior and internal affairs of this family, there is no problem to transfer power in Saudi Arabia, and no doubt the young king seeks to end any problems with neighboring countries, especially Iran.