Pak Sahafat – In a report, Foreign Policy magazine assessed the outcome of the Ukraine war in 2023 as difficult, but it is possible that the path to peace in this war in the new year will be long.
According to Pak Sahafat News Agency report, Foreign Policy wrote: After 10 months of the war in Ukraine, the number of casualties and injuries caused by this war has been huge, and while this war has taken many civilian victims and displaced millions of people, this conflict has also affected everything from From energy to food supply, inflation or material shortages have affected the world’s more vulnerable countries.
In this report, pointing out that there does not seem to be an end to this war in the near future and there are conflicting signals about the prospects of this conflict in the next year, it is stated: Russian President Vladimir Putin is unwilling to back down from his war aims and said earlier this month that the conflict would be a long-term process. There are also whispers of a new Russian attack – possibly involving Belarus – next year, possibly in January.
This article adds: On the other hand, recent developments such as the exchange of prisoners between Russia and the United States and the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative show that diplomacy can also achieve tangible results, while Ukraine conducts its diplomatic interactions through phone calls and meetings has increased with America, France and Turkey. On July 22, the United Nations, the Russian Federation, Turkey and Ukraine agreed to the Black Sea Grain Plan.
In the report of this media, by posing the question, what do these apparently contradictory messages predict about the general future of the war in Ukraine in 2023? Come: While it is difficult to predict the future of war this year, three key factors can have the greatest impact in this field.
First, and most importantly, Ukraine’s success on the battlefield. Contrary to expectations, Ukraine was able to resist the full-scale invasion of Russia. Not only did Kiev not quickly surrender to the Russians, Volodymyr Zelensky’s government also resisted and did not collapse. Also, Ukrainian forces have started their counter-attacks in recent months and have recaptured some of the main areas such as Kharkiv and Kherson.
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Western support for Ukraine, Russia’s operational mistakes, political miscalculations and determination of the Ukrainian government, army and people of this country brought such success to Kyiv.
Ukraine’s strong resistance has also forced Moscow to change its initial strategy in several ways. Russia withdrew its forces from the northern front of the conflict and concentrated in the west and east of Ukraine. Moscow also implemented and announced a massive military call-up and annexed the four regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson to strengthen its position in these regions.
Looking ahead, Ukraine is well-positioned militarily next year to retake more territory in the south and east, and it has the ability to use its drones to attack Russian military supply lines, including in Crimea and inside Russia. It has been proven in cities. However, Ukraine’s ability to regain more territory will in part require continued military support from the West, as well as financial aid to protect and rebuild its critical infrastructure.
In this report, the second most important determining factor in the Ukraine war in 2023 is the level of international support for Russia – or the lack of support and at least the level of international interaction of this country has been introduced and emphasized; While the US and NATO countries have proven their willingness to support Ukraine and isolate Russia, there is no such willingness outside the West. Countries like China, India and Turkey have refused to participate in the sanctions against Russia. These countries and several others in the non-Western world have increased their economic and energy ties with Moscow even since the start of the conflict. These relations have helped Russia bear the pressure of Western sanctions and prevent the economic collapse of this country.
But Moscow cannot be sure that these relations will remain strong, and Russia’s ongoing political and economic relations with countries such as India and China are not equal to the countries’ comprehensive support for the Ukrainian war. While the Chinese media mainly supports Russia in this war, this country has not yet officially declared a position in favor of Russia in the Ukraine war, and India has also been neutral.
Turkey has taken a stand against the war, but all these countries actually have an interest in maintaining energy imports from Russia. If Moscow seriously escalates the war in Ukraine next year – for example, by hinting or threatening to use chemical or nuclear weapons – countries such as China, India and Turkey are likely to reconsider their level of political and economic cooperation with Russia.
The third and final factor in predicting the Ukrainian war in 2023 is the political situation in both countries. So far, Putin has forcefully proven his ability to confront domestic opposition with war through repression and restrictive legislation, while maintaining the support of the National Security Council and key decision-makers. On the other hand, Ukrainian President Zelensky has shown that he can not only stay in power but also follow a strong program.