Pak Sahafat – Western experts and think tanks assess the occurrence of widespread political developments in Africa as dangerous and cause the increase of Russian influence in that region.
It was at the beginning of August that Niger’s presidential guard forces arrested and removed the president of this country, “Mohammed Bazoum”, inside the presidential palace, and as a result, they marked profound changes in this country.
As the largest country in the West African region, Niger has a population of about 25 million with a Muslim majority. Despite having many natural resources, especially uranium, diamonds, gold and coal, due to colonial policies, especially by the French statesmen, this country is considered among the poorest countries of the continent and the world, so that about half of them live below the poverty line. This country was a French colony until 1960, but even after independence, the influence of the Elysee Palace has been prominent in the country’s affairs.
The economic and political importance of Africa in the contemporary period, especially the situation of Souq Al-Jishi Niger, has caused the Western powers to be particularly sensitive to developments in this country, especially the reduction of Western influence in it.
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The American “Council on Foreign Relations” states in a report that the coup in Niger, which once formed the basis of the United States’ anti-terrorism efforts in West Africa, carries with it two threats, firstly, an increase in the level of regional instability and, more importantly, the risk of greater Russian influence.
About two weeks ago, they overthrew a part of Niger’s army, Muhammad Bazoum, citing the dire security situation. The coup plotters appointed General Abdel Rahman Omar Chiani as the head of the Transitional Council of Niger. At the same time that the mediation efforts of the Nigerian leader and other regional and western powers are underway, leaders of Niger’s military government are warning against foreign intervention. Of course, the expression of support from the neighboring countries of Burkina Faso, Guinea and Mali for the coup has made the situation more complicated.
This prominent American think tank has stated that five successful coups against the government have made Niger’s political conditions unstable since independence in 1960. President Bazoom came to power peacefully in 2021, but it is said that in the last days of his stay in the presidential palace, he was looking for extensive changes in the army of this country.
According to the experts, extreme poverty rate of more than 40%, drought caused by climate change and bad agricultural situation, along with being affected by chaos in Libya, have made this country unstable. According to the expert of this think tank, Niger was the main axis of the regional counter-terrorism efforts of the United States and France, and the two countries had deployed more than 1,000 troops throughout the country and still have military bases there to collect intelligence. But reports indicate that Niger’s military leader is extremely unhappy with this level of presence and lack of progress.
However, the Niger coup has occurred in the continuation of some important political developments in the region. The image below shows that this is the seventh coup in West and Central Africa since 2020.
On the regional and international implications of the coup in Niger, the Council on Foreign Relations has stated: Observers are concerned that the growing trend of military rule in countries in the region will exacerbate regional instability and weaken efforts to combat extremist groups, potentially causing more displacement. It will become popular and will open a window for more Russian influence in Africa. Now the western countries claim that their exclusion by the new governments weakens the fight against rebel groups and increases violence.
According to this analysis, an isolated Niger worsens the security situation in the entire region. With the same view, the United States, the European Union and the United Nations have all condemned this coup; The World Bank suspended some development aid and the economic community of West African countries, while imposing some sanctions, threatened to return Bazoom to power with military intervention. Washington also warned that the disruption of the situation that endangers the partnership between the United States and Niger, may cause the cessation of its aid to Niger.
This American think tank sees the developments in Africa as an opportunity for Russia to quickly fill the created vacuum and present itself as a like-minded partner with the countries of the region in opposition to colonialism. According to the claim of the above think tank, Moscow may even bring the mercenaries of the Wagner Group, who are stationed in Mali and other African regions, to Niger. Before this government, Bazoom did not have a positive approach towards Russia, but experts say that maybe the future military government will have a different view. Importantly for Western governments, Niger, as Africa’s second-largest uranium producer, will be an attractive ally for Russia as the Kremlin seeks influence in the continent’s resource-rich countries.
Africa looking for a new and equal partnership
The “Atlantic Council” think tank has also reported on the impact of the Niger coup on the geopolitical competition of the West in Africa. Almost at the same time as the anniversary of Niger’s independence from France in 1960, a coup took place in this country, and on the same day, a large number of people gathered in Esteghlal Square in the capital. Niamey declared their support for the recent bloodless coup.
According to this American think tank, African governments and their western partners are surprised by recent events in Niger. The Elysee Palace is still in shock because the coup followed earlier developments in Mali and Burkina Faso. In this regard, some African governments, with the support of the Western powers, threaten the coup plotters and talk about the need for the situation to return to normal.
This special sensitivity has several reasons, the most important of which is perhaps the serious fear of the withdrawal of the group of five countries of the African Sahel region from the influence of the West. According to the expert of the Atlantic Council, of the 5 countries in this group, four are led by four military regimes; Burkina Faso, Niger, Mali and Chad recently experienced undemocratic transitions of power, leaving only Mauritania. Niger is the fifth country in West Africa that witnessed a coup in the last three years.
The Atlantic Council states: The above development and the coups in recent years in West Africa show that significant geopolitical changes are underway, from France’s withdrawal to Russia’s attempt to create opportunities and feel the need of West African governments for better support from their allies. Although Africans do not explicitly want to expel France or other Western partners from their countries, they are looking for a new partnership on a more favorable and equal basis.
This American think tank is also worried that Russia will quickly support new governments in coup-led countries and elevate its role to the level of an important partner for these countries. Moscow is determined to prove that it is not isolated after the Ukraine war, so it is trying to use Africa to circumvent Western economic sanctions. This comes as the United States focuses on Europe to support Ukraine as well as protect its strategic interests.