Pak Sahafat – The last poll before the Brazilian presidential elections predicts the victory of the former president Lula da Silva in the first round, but the tense political atmosphere of this most polarized, most important and decisive election in the 3 decades of democracy in Brazil is keeping the world’s eyes on tomorrow’s political competition.
According to Pak Sahafat News Agency, around 156 million Brazilians will go to the polls on Sunday morning (local time) to elect the president of the country for the next four years. Although 11 candidates are competing for the Brazilian presidential seat, the current president Jair Bolsonaro from the extreme right wing and the former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (2003-2011) from the left wing are the main competitors for the seat of the Palace of Planalto.
In addition to the president, Brazilian citizens also elect all members of the House of Representatives, one-third of the Senate, and the governors and legislators of each state’s assemblies.
Duel between da Silva and Bolsonaro
Several pre-election polls suggest that Lula da Silva has an advantage of more than 11 points over Bolsonaro, however, it is difficult to predict a clear victory for da Silva from the Workers’ Party (PT) and it remains to be seen whether Brazil’s presidential election will go to the second round on October 30.
According to the Efe news agency, according to the latest survey of the “Instituto Ipec” which was published only one day before the most polarized elections in the history of Brazil, da Silva and Bolsonaro have the support of 51% and 37%, respectively. In order to win in the first round, Lula must win more than 50% of valid votes, and if the results of tomorrow’s elections go according to the results of this latest poll, Lula da Silva’s victory will be certain without the need for the election to be extended to the second round.
Datafolha survey data also show that da Silva will get 50% of valid votes and Bolsonaro will get 36%.
According to experts, according to the results of these two polls, it is not possible to guarantee Lula da Silva’s definitive victory, because both polls have a margin of error of two percent, and thus, the votes in favor of da Silva can vary between 48 percent and 53 percent. On the other hand, abstentions are also very influential in Da Silva’s success, and if a large number of voters decide not to go to the polls, Da Silva’s statistics will probably change.
After these two main rivals, Ciro Gomes from the Labor Party, who is the third candidate with the most votes in the last year’s polls, has the support of five percent, followed by the center-right senator Simon Tebbet with votes.
IPEC showed that Bolsonaro’s strategy has been more successful so far, as his approval ratings rose by three percentage points compared to the poll released five days ago, and Lula’s support fell by one point.
According to Dataful’s statistics, if the election is extended to the second round, Lula will win with 54% of the valid votes and Bolsonaro will win 38% of the votes. According to IPEC, in the possible second round, da Silva and Bolsonaro will get 52 and 37 percent of the votes, respectively.
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The most important and violent elections in 3 decades of democracy in Brazil
According to the website of the Spanish TV channel Artiva, this is the most important, tense and violent election in the three decades of democracy in Brazil. Dealing with the economic situation, the urgency of saving the Amazon, the lungs of the earth and the protection of the natives, etc., are issues that have caused the people of Brazil to think about whether they will witness peaceful times after the election tomorrow and after the announcement of the results.
The political violence in the last stage of the election campaigns in Brazil has increased to the point that the Efe news agency, last Wednesday (September 28), reported the investigation into the murder of at least four people after the political debates.
The tense political atmosphere on the eve of this two-pole competition caused Da Silva, who is leading in the polls, and Bolsonaro, who was stabbed during the 2018 election campaigns, to participate in some of their campaign rallies wearing bulletproof vests and under the protection of security forces.
Tensions and concerns have gone beyond the borders of Brazil and have caused concern in some countries. Last Tuesday, White House spokesperson Karin Jean-Pierre condemned the recent violent incidents in the framework of election campaigns and expressed hope that the elections would be “held in a fair, transparent and credible manner.”
Intensification of violence is likely on Election Day. A Sao Paulo police official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Efe that there is a possibility of “clashes” in the streets if Lula da Silva wins the first round.
Brazil’s Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) announced on Friday that between Saturday and Monday the carrying of weapons by citizens will be suspended due to the holding of the presidential election.
Why is the fate of Brazil important for Latin America and the world?
Last September 7th, commemoration of the 200th anniversary of Brazil’s independence was held with a traditional parade. The history of this largest country in South America is full of ups and downs, but a look at Brazil today is proof of the fact that the results of tomorrow’s elections, beyond determining the fate of the country’s population of more than 217 million people, are also important for the Latin American region and the world.
The history of Brazil is the story of a nation for which the conditions of peace and prosperity have always had a special place. However, today, about 63 million Brazilians live below the poverty line; Food insecurity has affected 125 million people; Less than 1% of agricultural land owners own 45% of rural land; Although blacks make up more than half of the country’s population, few Afro-Brazilians are in management positions; Every year, 50,000 people (about 130 people per day) are killed in Brazil; On the other hand, Brazil has the largest gross domestic product and the most populous country in Latin America, and is a developing country with huge economic potential. Brazil continues its friendly relations and cooperation with other powers in the group of emerging economic powers known as BRICS; This vast country is a great agricultural powerhouse, has huge mineral resources and a significant domestic market, and most importantly, it has a significant regional influence.
Although the United States and Europe have been Brazil’s traditional partners for a long time, in 1999, the country suffered a severe economic crisis, and this caused the change of Brazil’s commercial diplomacy strategy to be placed on the foreign policy agenda of the then Brazilian president Henrique Cardoso. He emphasized the diversity of business partners and the development of cooperation with large developing countries as the main goal of the country. This change was further manifested during the presidency of Lula da Silva, the closer relations with China that da Silva promoted, enabling Brazil to fulfill its desire to create a multipolar world order to create a coalition of developing countries in major multilateral institutions.
The Austrian writer “Stefan Zweig” praised Brazil’s huge capacity and attributed the title of “the country of the future” to Brazil, and as it is clear, the renewed support of the citizens of this country to Lula da Silva due to his previous successful management history shows that Brazilians want to revive again. The important point is that Lula da Silva’s advertising campaign strategy has always focused on recalling the successes of the previous presidency, but will the previous successes be repeated if Da Silva wins? Will Lula da Silva be an exception among the unsuccessful experience of returning successful leaders to power? The bitter end of the return of successful leaders such as “Juan Peron” in Argentina, “Alvaro Uribe” in Colombia and “Carlos Andre Pérez” in Venezuela with welfare governments will make the management process of Lula da Silva even more difficult if he regains the presidency. If we consider the changes in the global and regional conditions from the political, economic and social point of view as factors of the unsuccessful fate of these presidents, will the Da Silva government be able to adapt to the complex external and internal conditions and different from its previous presidency?
The victory of Lula da Silva in Brazil will mean the completion of the puzzle of the presence of left-wing powers in the top economies of Latin America and, as a result, greater convergence. The first turning point of Latin America’s political turn to leftism in the last decade was the decisive victory of “Andres Manuel López Obrador” in Mexico in 2018. The following year, Panamanian voters elected a center-left government, and Argentina’s left-wing Peronist movement made a surprising return to politics with the victory of Alberto Fernandez. In 2020, Luis Arce defeated his conservative rivals and became the president of Bolivia. Last April (July 1400), Pedro Castillo, a little-known village teacher, defeated his bitter rival and took over the presidency of Peru. In November, Xiomara Castro, a female socialist candidate, won a surprise election in Honduras, ending the right-wing party’s 12-year rule in the country. In December, the Chileans elected former left-leaning student activist Gabriel Boric. In the last and most interesting case, Gustavo Petro, as the first left-wing president in the history of Colombia, took the helm of the government for the next four years (2026-2022).
Finally, Bolsonaro’s questioning of Brazil’s electronic election system has caused his usual imitation of Donald Trump to repeat events such as the attack on the United States Congress building by not accepting the election results; From Lula da Silva’s claim that he will definitely win the first round of this political race to Bolsonaro’s menacing tone that “only God can remove him”, the eyes of the world are staring at Brazil’s elections tomorrow. Although there is no guarantee of a repeat of Lula da Silva’s previous successful scenario, it seems that the reappearance of Bolsonaro, whom many blame for the catastrophic death toll from Corona, threatens Brazil’s democracy. On the other hand, perhaps in the middle of the cries of the alarm of the climate crisis, in whose hands the fate of the government that hosts the Amazon forests as the lungs of the earth will fall, is enough as the only reason for the importance of tomorrow’s elections for the world.