Pak Sahafat – After the 7.8-magnitude earthquake in Turkey-Syria and the death of thousands of innocent people in this geography, the rhythm of diplomatic contacts to normalize relations with the legitimate government of Syria has increased.
According to the Pak Sahafat news agency, in the last month, in addition to the foreign ministers of the UAE, Jordan and Egypt, the heads of parliaments of Arab countries such as Iraq, Oman, the UAE, Palestine, Libya, Egypt and Lebanon also went to Damascus to meet with “Bashar Assad”. The President of Syria should prepare the preparations for the return of the “cradle of Arab nationalism” to the Arab world.
In this regard, after many years, the President of Syria went to Muscat, the capital of the Sultanate of Oman, to negotiate with “Haitham Bin Tariq”, the Sultan of Oman, about the development of bilateral relations, the possibility of normalizing relations with other Persian Gulf states such as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Analyzing the traffic of diplomatic contacts between Damascus and other Arab capitals promises to restore Syria’s position in the West Asian region.
Stabilization of political sovereignty; The key to return to the Arab world
“Earthquake diplomacy” is a name that is used a lot these days in the media of the region regarding the political initiative of Bashar al-Assad in rebuilding relations with the Arab governments of West Asia. After intensifying the criticism of the administration of “Joe Biden”, the President of the United States, due to the continuation of Caesar’s sanctions against Syria during the earthquake and humanitarian disaster, the Treasury Department of the United States issued the general authorization “Syria 23”, based on which some sanctions on Damascus in the field of economic and commercial transactions, it is removed for 6 months (180 days).
The announcement of this news caused the Arab governments to use this golden opportunity and demand the normalization of relations with the Syrian government. Some experts believe that after the political sovereignty of Damascus has been established over most of the regions of this political geography, now the Arab governments with the aim of “participating in the reconstruction process and markets of Syria”, “possibility of exporting energy to Europe” and “restricting the influence of Iran and Turkey” have repeatedly contacted They have resumed diplomatic relations with the Assad government and want this country to return to the Arab League.
Of course, countries such as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Morocco, due to political considerations (oppositions of the White House) and to save money among the public opinion of some Arab populations, chose the policy of joining the process of normalizing relations with Damascus with delay.
One of the concerns of Arab governments is the weakening of the political ideology of “nationalism” among Syrian statesmen and the expansion of the influence of non-Arab governments in the region. This threat has caused some Arab capitals to demand the reduction of tensions with Assad’s legal system and the resumption of political, economic and cultural relations with this country. Perhaps, the visit of heads of parliaments and foreign ministers of most Arab countries with the mediation of Iraq, Egypt, the UAE and Oman is the beginning of a new chapter of “political balance” in Damascus Square and the return of stability to the Shamat region.
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Although the media affiliated to Riyadh-Doha continue to follow a critical policy against the legitimate government of Syria, some economic contacts and changes in political positions indicate a different policy. For example, after the mediation of “Sergei Lavrov”, the Russian Foreign Minister, Saudi Arabia modified its previous harsh positions towards Damascus and supported the political solution, which Bashar al-Assad is also a part of.
On September 27, 2020, with the reopening of the “Nasib” border crossing, Saudi Arabia allowed the passage of Syrian cargo trucks bound for Amman. Also, in mid-December 2020, a flight from Riyadh to Damascus International Airport took place. The fact that this flight was carried out by a private Syrian company under the sanctions of the United States of America had a special message for the region.
On the other hand, with the normalization of relations between Hamas and Damascus and the beginning of military-security talks between the Syrian and Turkish authorities in Moscow, speculations about Doha joining this process and the possibility of adjusting Qatar’s traditional positions towards the “old enemy” have increased.
The desire of the “New Sham” coalition to Syria
In the history of modern West Asia, no two countries have experienced such ups and downs as Syria and Egypt. In the 1950s and during the era of the “Pan-Arabism” ideology, Cairo and Damascus wanted to form a single country called the “United Arab Republic” in order to realize the dream of Arab nations joining each other after many years, but this idea was Gamal Abdel Nasser’s “Egyptism” and the opposition of Syrian officers failed.
With the decline of “Baathism” and the revival of new waves of Islamism in the region, Damascus and Cairo were once again involved in an internal crisis. This caused the two countries to lose the possibility of establishing bilateral relations based on common interests when the political atmosphere in Egypt and then Syria became stable.
Now, after more than 10 years, “Sameh Shoukry”, the Egyptian foreign minister, went to Damascus to meet with Bashar Assad and deliver the letter of “Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi”, the Egyptian president, to his Syrian counterpart.
It seems that member governments of the new Levant political-economic coalition are looking for Damascus to join this new block in the region. The addition of Syria to this regional bloc can lead to the emergence of opportunities such as “participation in reconstruction projects”, “development of energy transmission routes” and “creating a balance against rival blocs” for Iraq-Jordan-Egypt. The joining of Syria to this regional block will provide the ground for the start of dialogue with Beirut with the aim of completing this geopolitical chain from the Persian Gulf region to the Eastern Mediterranean.
Meanwhile, one of the influential variables in Syria moving away or getting closer to regional blocs or coalitions are “extra-regional powers” such as Russia or France. In the Russian analysis system, any formation of an energy corridor towards the European markets will be considered against the national interests of this country and a “red line”. Probably, the Russians will not allow any regional power to form a path outside the Kremlin’s supervision; unless they receive significant points in return.
On the other hand, other European powers such as France, Italy or Germany, while welcoming the formation of new routes from the side of energy producers, may not hesitate to directly provide any investment or technical assistance to accelerate this process. The coming months and the outcome of the military confrontation between Moscow and Kiev will determine which of the actors has the ability to dictate their will on the battlefield and dictate their wishes in the geopolitical sphere of this region.
“Earthquake Diplomacy” has given Bashar Assad the opportunity to return to the Arab society and provide the necessary platforms for attracting foreign capital and rebuilding the ruins of this country. Meanwhile, variables such as the outcome of security talks in Baghdad, Turkey-Syria talks in Moscow and the process of reconciliation talks can affect the process of normalizing Syria’s relations with other Arab countries such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
In this “positive” process, perhaps the greatest point of threat that is waiting for the axis of resistance; the effort of countries such as UAE or Turkey is to create security-economic communication channels between Damascus and Tel Aviv. Before the beginning of the Syrian crisis, Ankara tried to manage the security negotiations between Syria and the Zionist regime, to provide the basis for resolving the differences between the two sides and normalizing the relations between Damascus and Tel Aviv, but it failed.