Pak Sahafat – The mid-term and decisive elections of the United States Congress, which are scheduled to begin in a few hours, carry the risk of intensifying internal disputes and the possibility of political violence; An election in which the chances of the Democratic Party to win have been minimized and the Biden administration has been put on the edge of a razor.
According to Pak Sahafat News Agency’s report on Tuesday, China’s English-language newspaper Global Times wrote in an analytical report on the issue of the US congressional elections: Amid US politicians’ fights over inflation, deadly shootings and fears of violence, the US midterm elections loom as a prelude to the 2024 presidential election and revenge for Donald Trump’s 2020 defeat and an unprecedented attack on Congress.
US political leaders from both the Democratic and Republican parties delivered their closing remarks to voters on Sunday, US President Joe Biden accused Republicans of reveling in political violence, while Republicans said they could handle America’s economic woes in better ways.
Candidates from both parties have been physically assaulted, election organizers have been intimidated, and threats against members of Congress have increased tenfold.
The American media NBC, referring to the public opinion of the voters, said: The vicious spiral of violence and fear creates anxiety and a sense of extreme terror that puts the American nation on the verge of destruction.
American media announced that more than 40 million Americans have voted ahead of the mid-term elections on Tuesday this week. According to the United States political polling site (fivethirtyeight.com), the Republican Party is in a better position in this race and their probability of winning the Senate is about 54% and the probability of taking the House of Representatives is about 83%.
Rona McDaniel, chairman of the Republican National Committee, predicted on Sunday that Republicans will take back both houses of Congress in the midterm elections, according to CNN.
Some analysts believe that if the Biden administration fails at home, it may try to increase its presence on the international stage and diplomacy and pressure other countries abroad in exchange for the approval of domestic voters.
The experts that Global Times interviewed say: If the Republican Party takes over only the House of Representatives or Congress, US policy on China is likely to become more provocative and confrontational.
The GOP is likely to lead the push for stronger anti-China approaches, pressuring the Biden administration to be tougher on China’s actions, including on Taiwan.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are contested in mid-term elections. According to the US Constitution, a tax bill can only be introduced by the House and then amended by the Senate. Currently, the Democrats have the majority in the parliament.
Liu added: Republicans are likely to attack Democrats over spending too much on health care, and if the Biden administration tries to pass some kind of stimulus package, Republicans will do everything they can to block it in Congress.
Since taking office, Biden has introduced three major bills: an economic relief package for the coronavirus pandemic, a plan to improve infrastructure and a recovery plan that covers areas from clean energy to taxes and health care. The first two bills passed after two congressional hearings, while a scaled-down version of the Upgrade Plan, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, finally passed in August after being stalled by staunch opposition from Republicans.
Experts also pointed out that in addition to preventing the advancement of Biden’s plan, Republicans’ control over the House of Representatives could turn into a mutual conflict between the House and the President.
Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, told the Global Times: As soon as the Republicans take control of the House of Representatives, they will first dissolve the committee investigating the congressional riots on January 6 and investigate Biden’s son Hunt.
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According to media reports, in early October, the gross national debt of the United States exceeded $31 trillion for the first time and approached the threshold of $31.4 trillion.
Wu said: If Republicans take control of the Senate, it will be difficult to see progress on Biden’s original policies and agenda, and appointments that require Senate confirmation, including liberal judges, will be stalled.
The president’s top nominees, including federal judges, ambassadors and cabinet members, need Senate confirmation. Experts explain that after the president signs an agreement on behalf of the US government with another country, the agreement must be approved by two-thirds of the Senate to take effect.
Yuan Zheng, deputy director and senior fellow of the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Monday that domestic political polarization in the United States is likely to intensify.
Using the example of the riots in Congress and the latest consequences of the attack on Paul Pelosi, the husband of Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Wu said: As the US political system loses its flexibility, more people may choose violent means outside the system.
Wu said: US politics is in danger of spilling over into street violence that is seen as a response to an unintended consequence.
A recently released poll from the University of California, Davis found that nearly 1 in 5 people agree that violence is sometimes needed to protect American democracy when elected leaders do not.
The sad vision of 2024?
According to the latest American poll, the economy, crime and abortion are among the top three issues of American voters. Nearly half of US voters, 49 percent, say the economy is very important to their vote for Congress, according to a Gallup report released a week ago.
According to the median forecast of economists polled by Bloomberg, the consumer price index rose 7.9 percent in October from a year earlier, and the annual U.S. inflation rate was 8.2 percent in September.
Last week, the Federal Reserve announced its fourth consecutive interest rate increase of 0.75% in an effort to reduce inflation.
CNBC stated: However, the measure will raise debt costs for Americans who are already struggling with rising prices for nearly everything, including essentials like food and rent.
Some Republicans said on Sunday: Better to address America’s economic woes, and media reports assert that Democrats are ill-equipped to help voters.
But if Republicans drag the community into a partisan showdown, it could backfire, leaving voters unhappy with some of their counterproductive approaches, Liu said.
Local races for governor and state House are also important, the expert said, and if Republicans maintain their advantages in some swing states, they are likely to implement new election rules in the future.
He said that every state in the United States makes its own election laws, and Republicans can essentially prepare for the 2024 election by promoting laws that might dampen potential Democratic voter enthusiasm.