Parallel to the erosion of the war in Ukraine, the said crisis is deepening and the two sides, despite following the unwritten rules, have now crossed some red lines and taken a step on the path of nuclear confrontation.
Pak Sahafat News Agency, International Group: Since the beginning of March 2021, when the war between Russia and Ukraine began, until today, the threats have always entered a more serious phase, to the point where the “possibility of the third world war” that was raised before has been replaced by the “possibility of a nuclear war”.
Now this question comes to mind, if the current situation continues, will the world witness the use of atomic bombs by Russia and the West, and will the experience of Nagasaki and Hiroshima be repeated, or will the threats remain at the level of rhetoric and bluff?
While at the beginning of the war, positions were cautious about the occurrence of a nuclear war, but gradually the positions became hostile. For example, Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, had previously warned that “there is no winner in a nuclear war, and such a conflict should never begin.”
However, last month, Putin pointed out that his country is ready to use nuclear weapons in war, and emphasized that: “This is not a bluff”; Statements that faced the reaction of the United States and its European allies, and the White House, in response to Putin’s “nuclear threat”, announced that the United States takes the threat of using nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war seriously and that “severe consequences” are expected in the event of such an action.
Also, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced on the sidelines of the secret meeting of the “Atomic Planning Group” that Russia’s use of nuclear weapons would be a “very important red line”. These statements were made just a few days before the start of nuclear drills between Russia and NATO.
“Joseph Burrell”, the head of the foreign policy of the European Union, was not left behind by these rumors and declared that it should be clear that the people who support Ukraine, the European Union, the United States, and NATO are not bluffing either. He claimed: “Any nuclear attack against Ukraine will not be met with a nuclear response, but with such a powerful military response that the Russian army will be destroyed.”
How serious is the threat?
Some experts believe that experience has shown that if Putin’s threats are not applied on a large scale, at least they can be implemented on a limited and tactical level. For example, James Cameron, a member of the Oslo Center for Nuclear Studies, denies Putin’s use of Russia’s strategic nuclear arsenal capable of attacking the United States.
Cameron stating that Russia is the number one nuclear power in the world with a stockpile of about 4,500 nuclear warheads, added: Moscow has “tactical” nuclear weapons less destructive than the Hiroshima bomb that it may use in the Ukraine war. According to Russia’s “de-escalation” nuclear doctrine of using a light nuclear weapon in a conventional conflict with the West, the Russian president may decide to detonate one of these “small” nuclear weapons in Ukrainian airspace or in the Black Sea.
According to a Washington Post columnist, the attack could also target a sparsely populated area of ​​Ukraine or a Ukrainian military installation to scare people into surrender, or even force Westerners to persuade Ukraine to surrender.
But many observers consider even the limited use of an atomic bomb by an actor as a declaration of nuclear war; A war that may be initiated by an actor, but not necessarily the end of it, because at the same time, the actors who have this weapon of mass destruction will act reciprocally and managing the crisis will not be easy.
Therefore, until recently, the two sides tried to prevent the occurrence of the third world war by observing the unwritten rules, but due to the escalation of the crisis, today the occurrence of a nuclear war and the subsequent third world war seem more likely than ever.
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The danger of going from unwritten rules to nuclear confrontation
Previously, it was thought that contrary to the common estimates that the conditions of a world war prevail in Ukraine, the conflict in this country follows the pattern of the Cold War. Therefore, the war witnessed stages during which the conflict was well managed, although there were also stages during which the conflict intensified suddenly and chaotically.
In these unwritten rules, Russia has agreed to send heavy weapons and intelligence support from Western countries to Ukraine, but has opposed the direct participation of Western forces in the battlefields.
But the unwritten rules set by the West for this war are that Western countries reluctantly accept Russia’s conventional war inside Ukraine, while desperately seeking Moscow’s defeat in this war. Western countries will accept Russia’s use of conventional weapons as long as this conflict does not lead to Moscow’s use of weapons of mass destruction.
So far, both sides of the conflict have respected these unwritten rules, which showed that US President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart do not want to expand the circle of war. Western countries, despite political support and financial-military aid to Ukraine, avoided direct entry into the war. During this time, Ukraine did not join the European Union and NATO, and issues like that.
In the meantime, there were events that crossed Russia’s red lines and were considered against the written laws, including the expansion of NATO to the east and the addition of two countries, Finland and Sweden, to this military alliance.
In addition, sending long-range missiles to Ukraine is another red line. The United States and its allies, regardless of this warning, have delivered several shipments of weapons with different ranges to the Ukrainians and have claimed that Kiev has pledged to use these weapons only for defensive purposes. On the one hand, the sending of this equipment has led to the erosion of the war and on the other hand, it has kept the leaders of Kiev away from the negotiation table.
At the same time, the defense officials of the United States Army have advised the government to refrain from providing Ukraine with long-range missiles known as “Army Tactical Missile System” (ATACM). They have expressed concern that sending these missiles with a range of 300 kilometers can be used against targets inside the Russian territory and increase the risk of a large-scale war with Russia.
End of speech
The annexation of four Ukrainian regions to Russia, such as Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia, has complicated the previous equations, especially after the leaders of Moscow, including President Vladimir Putin, announced they will defend these annexed territories “by any means necessary”, but Ukrainian forces have been trying to advance in parts of the east and south, using Western arms.
The annexation of 15% of Ukraine’s territory to Russia and, on the other hand, the flood of American-European weapons and missiles with various ranges to Ukraine, has complicated the interwoven tangle of the crisis, but the possibility of a nuclear war is a bit far-fetched.
The Boston Globe writes about the possibility of a nuclear conflict between Russia and NATO: “The probability that Putin will use a large and catastrophic nuclear weapon is still very low.”
According to this publication, even the probability of using a small nuclear weapon, known as a tactical nuclear weapon, is not more than 10 or 20%, but if such an event occurs, the pressure on the United States and its allies to retaliate for such an action will be very strong.
But in the meantime, the leaders of Kiev are trying to provoke and force the West to start a nuclear war against Russia by pointing out the threats made by the Kremlin Palace. Zelensky has recently asked NATO to carry out pre-emptive strikes against Russia before Moscow uses nuclear weapons. He said: “What should NATO do? Eliminate the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons. Carry out pre-emptive strikes so that they know what will happen to them (Russia) if they use them (nuclear weapons).
So, while it is believed that Russia is taking advantage of the nuclear threat to preserve its achievements, including the partition of Ukraine and the annexation of four regions of the country, as well as preventing the sending of long-range Western missiles to Kiev, Zelensky is really eager for a nuclear war of Russia and the West; Of course, a war that is preemptively started by America and Europe in order to weaken Moscow and drag the West into the battlefield; A scenario that despite the efforts of the leaders of Kiev, its realization seems dim.