Analysts and observers of Syrian developments are waiting to see the results of the “Tehran” meeting on the expulsion of American soldiers from northern Syria in action.
Pak Sahafat News Agency – International Group: On Tuesday, July 28, 1401, the supreme leader of the revolution met and talked with the presidents of Turkey and Russia, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin.
Many experts on West Asian issues believe that the “Tehran” meeting and the meeting of the powers of the Eurasian region are important from two perspectives. First, the sequence of this meeting after the “Jeddah” meeting and the presence of Joe Biden in the meeting of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council, and secondly, the attempt of Tehran and Russia to mediate between Turkey and Syria in order to prevent Ankara’s military operations against the Kurdish forces.
One of the most important parts of the Supreme Leader’s speech in the meeting with the Russian President was referring to the illegal presence of American forces in Syria. Referring to the presence of American forces in fertile and oil-rich areas in the region east of the Euphrates River, he said: This issue should be resolved by expelling them from the region.” This position, while being welcomed by the presidents of both countries present in Iran, was expressed in the final statement of the 7th summit of the guarantor countries of the Astana process.
According to Anatolia news agency, Erdogan also said when he returned from his official trip to Tehran in response to the journalists’ question about the achievements of the Tehran meeting: America should leave the east of the Euphrates right now. This issue is the achievement of the Astana meeting; because this country strengthens terrorist groups there (east of the Euphrates). The outcome of the “Tehran” meeting shows that the influential powers in the Syrian peace process reached a consensus on the withdrawal of American forces from the northern region of Syria and want the occupiers to withdraw from this region. In such a situation, the question is that “why” and “how” the American forces should be driven from the east of the Euphrates?
Why is the east of the Euphrates important?
The Euphrates River is one of the big rivers that originates from the mountains of Eastern Anatolia in Turkey and flows into the waters of the Persian Gulf after passing through Syria and Iraq. In addition to being the place of creation of civilization for centuries, this river has been the place of settlement and the factor of agricultural prosperity in the Mesopotamian region. In other words, this area is considered as the “agricultural pole” of Syria, and its control by Damascus is a great help to the national economy of Syria.
According to the statistics published before the beginning of the developments in the Arab world in 2011, in Syria, the agricultural sector provided nearly 20% of the country’s gross domestic product. Also, the east of this historical river has rich hydrocarbon resources, which are currently occupied by the American forces and are extracted and sold illegally. The provinces of Deir Ezzor, Haskeh and Raqqa are the regions that host these oil sources. According to published international statistics, the eastern and northeastern regions of Syria have reserves of 2.5 billion and 500 thousand barrels of oil!
The presence of such abundant resources in this strategic region has caused competition and conflict between the powers present in the Syrian arena. On the one hand, Iran and Russia are seeking to return these resources to the legitimate government of Damascus in order to speed up the process of strengthening the government and rebuilding the country of Syria. On the other hand, actors such as the United States have settled in this region under the pretext of fighting ISIS by supporting the Kurds, and are extracting Syria’s national wealth and transferring it abroad, away from the noise of the Western media.
In such a situation, it is important to expel the occupying forces of the United States, as it provides the ground for cutting off foreign hands from Syria’s carbon dioxide resources and the restoration of Damascus’s sovereignty over all of Syria’s geopolitics. In the situation that Damascus is under Caesar’s embargo system and is deprived of foreign investment, especially from the Persian Gulf countries; If Bashar al-Assad can control the oil resources and the agricultural economy, he has taken a big step towards strengthening his position in the political future of the Syrian regime.
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How can America be expelled from the east of the Euphrates?
The movement of the international system towards a fluid unipolar-multipolar order has caused the gradual decline of the hegemony of the United States of America and the increase of the playing field of regional powers such as Iran and Turkey. This new order, which is seriously different from the “unipolar” or “cold war” era, redefines the type of relations between countries based on the “network order”. In this model, countries choose the model of competition or cooperation with other active actors in the field based on their different interests in each strategic issue or regional case.
For example: In the Syrian crisis, Iran and Turkey have common interests in reducing tensions and “ceasefire” and cooperate with each other, but on the issue of the withdrawal of terrorists from Idlib province and the return of all occupied areas to the central government of Syria, Tehran and Ankara have serious differences of opinion. Another example of the “network order” model can be seen in the Libyan case. On this basis, Iran, Turkey and Russia have a common understanding and interest in the issue of expelling American soldiers from the strategic area east of the Euphrates. “Cutting the oil transportation artery”, “Targeted missile-drone attacks by non-governmental groups”, “Approving a legal resolution in the Syrian Parliament with the aim of expelling the occupying forces”, “Legal pursuit through international institutions” and “Geopolitical encirclement of American forces” are among the methods.
The main reason for Ankara’s desire to withdraw the US from the northern region of Syria is the cooperation of US forces with groups such as YPG. In Turkey’s national security documents, the most important threat to the country’s national security is the presence of scattered Kurdish armed forces in Turkey’s neighboring countries. In recent years, they have violated the territorial integrity of their neighbors and started direct military operations against terrorist groups. Of course, the fight against terrorism is not the only reason for Ankara’s agreement with the withdrawal of the US from the region east of the Euphrates.
Turkish forces opened a special account on the northern areas of Syria to realize their ambitious goals. During the past years, the Turkish forces and their affiliated elements provided the basis for the promotion of Turkish culture and language, especially among children, by building houses, hospitals and schools.
Russia is another influential actor in the Shamat crisis. Since the time of the Soviet Union, through strategic relations with the Hafez Assad regime, Moscow was able to enter into serious disputes in the Middle East region, such as the Arab-Israeli issue, and find an alternative way to enter the Mediterranean waters and confront NATO forces. With the beginning of the Syrian crisis in 2011, Moscow did not have a clear idea about the possible fall of Damascus and the rise to power of extremist forces allied with the United States in the south of its borders.
When Damascus did not fall like other Arab capitals and the opposition supported by the conservative axis and the Brotherhood revealed their intention to create a gas transmission corridor to Europe, the Russians rushed to help the resistance forces by sending their fighters. With the start of the Ukraine war and the creation of the world’s largest sanctions ring against Russia, Putin is more sensitively monitoring the presence of American forces and members of the North Atlantic Treaty around his borders to prevent any actions against his national security.
The practical result of this event was to cut off Iran’s relationship with Hezbollah and create a security wall around the Zionist regime. The help of the resistance forces, along with Russia, to the popular groups and the Syrian army provided the ground for the defeat of the terrorists and the gradual control of Damascus over different regions of this country. Now, after the establishment of relative peace in Syria, Tehran is looking for the control of all the logic of Syria by the legitimate government of Assad and the withdrawal of foreign forces from this country, especially the United States of America.
Benefit of speech
On the one hand, the competition between Washington and Beijing and the withdrawal of American forces and strategic equipment from the MENA region to the Indo-Pacific region have created a power vacuum and the role of regional and extra-regional powers in West Asia. The tripartite alliance of Tehran-Ankara-Moscow with the aim of expelling the American forces from the east of the Euphrates River announces a new blockade in the Shamat subsystem.
The guarantor countries of the Astana peace process, after successfully maintaining the ceasefire and controlling tensions in Syria, are now facing a big test. Since the beginning of the Syrian crisis, American forces have entered northern Syria in the name of fighting terrorism and supporting the Kurds and looting the country’s natural resources. Now analysts and observers of Syrian developments are waiting to see the results of the “Tehran” meeting in action.