Pak Sahafat – The tension between the US and China over Taiwan in recent years has strengthened the hypothesis of a military confrontation between Beijing and Washington. Will China and America go to war with the escalation of tensions? In case of war, which side wins the conflict?
The dual “Ukraine war” and “intensification of tension over Taiwan” have caused many experts and political officials of different countries in the world to consider a military confrontation between China and the United States far from their minds. Therefore, the conflict between East and West in recent years can take on wider dimensions.
The growing power of China in the face of the significant decline of American hegemony is one of the reasons that can sound the war alarm from the White House officials. Perhaps the only war is the way to slow down or even stop China’s train of progress.
Fear of China’s progress is clearly evident in the declaration positions of Western officials. Just as “Joseph Burrell”, the European Union’s foreign policy official, recently acknowledged China’s power and influence in international equations in an interview and considered this country “a real player in the geopolitical arena”. The current and former heads of the White House have always warned about China’s progress and its danger to the United States.
The first scenario; China’s victory in the possible battle
America’s involvement in multiple and multifaceted international crises from the Middle East to Ukraine has led many to the conclusion that China will undoubtedly be the winner of the possible conflict.
Supporters of this scenario cite the tremendous advances of China’s military, especially its modern navy and stunning missile power. In this regard, the English newspaper “Sun” wrote in an article that this war is considered the worst and most difficult scenario for the American army because simulations have shown that Washington would fail in a military confrontation with China. The Pentagon will lose the war with China within a week.
In this article, the first stage of the war is described as the widespread and destructive firing of Chinese missiles at important air bases in the region. China’s next step is to attack the American “Kadena” base on the Japanese island of Okinawa, where 60% of the aircraft deployed there will be destroyed within a few hours.
What follows is a missile attack on Taiwan, targeting air defenses, followed by a major amphibious assault on the island. The Chinese will also launch attacks on Taiwan’s political centers to force the region’s leadership to surrender.
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But the work does not end there. When the United States sends troops to defend Taiwan, China will launch cyber-attacks in an attempt to disable communications, especially telecommunications satellites. A week later, while the Red Army troops are safely stationed on the territory of Taiwan, the war ends with the decisive defeat of the United States.
The second scenario; American victory in possible battle
Supporters of this scenario consider the number and variety of American weapons, both conventional and unconventional, such as atomic warheads, tactical atomic bombs, cluster bombs, and biological and chemical weapons, as a reason for America’s victory, and they believe that 750 military bases and 336 biological bases of America in Different countries of the world can be a strong point.
The report published by the “Center for Strategic and International Studies” (CSIS) can be included in this framework and scenario; According to this study center, the report is the result of repeating this war simulation 24 times and the Chinese attack on Taiwan and American forces will be unsuccessful while being costly for both sides.
According to the published report of this research, America and Japan will lose tens of ships, hundreds of planes and thousands of soldiers. Such losses would undermine the United States’ global standing for several years. The US Navy will lose two aircraft carriers and 10 to 20 large battleships, and approximately 3,200 American soldiers will be killed during the three-week battle; almost half of what America lost in two decades of war in Iraq and Afghanistan.
On the other hand, China will also be severely damaged and its navy will reach the point of destruction. In addition, with the breaking of the core of China’s naval and land forces, tens of thousands of soldiers of this country will be captured or killed. Based on the estimates and evaluations of this research institute, China will lose about 10,000 soldiers, 155 warplanes and 138 ships.
The third scenario; Managed tension
The upcoming scenario seems more likely than the previous two scenarios; A scenario that can be addressed from two perspectives; through the lens of the adverse experiences of the Americans as well as the cautious attitude of the Chinese.
In relation to why the Americans do not want to engage in a military conflict with China, it should be noted their repeated failures in different parts of the world.
According to the report of “National Interest” magazine, naturally, one of the list of bitter events that the United States is dealing with these days goes back to the Middle East. Leaving Afghanistan was shameful. The continued presence of the United States in Iraq is also reprehensible. Bashar al-Assad remains in power despite US opposition, and the US-backed Arab springs in Libya and Egypt have failed.
Referring to the excessive US spending in Afghanistan, this publication calls it a failure and writes: “The US government was present in Afghanistan for 20 years and spent 2 trillion dollars. Therefore, the United States should learn from these costs and failures. Another failure of America can be mentioned the country’s inability to dissuade China from claiming ownership of the South China Sea.
On the other hand, it does not seem that Chinese politicians and officials dream of war with America. The rulers of China have the teachings of the Chinese strategist “Sun Tzu” in the book “The Art of Martial” in their ears. Written about 2,500 years ago, this book argues that even the winner of a war is a loser because war destroys resources and means the loss of diplomacy.