UAE Bitter Options: Enduring More Ansarullah Attacks or Accepting Defeat in Yemen / Will Israel Be the Next Destination for Missiles and UAVs?
Abu Dhabi has two main options: Significantly intensify the conflict or withdraw from Yemen immediately, both of which have heavy costs for Abu Dhabi.
In a note written by Abdul Bari Atwan, founder and editor-in-chief of the Rai Al-Youm newspaper and former editor of the London-based Pan-Arabi Al-Quds Al-Arabi, the Cridell analytical site wrote: The Yemeni Ansarullah resistance movement has launched a retaliatory missile strike deep into the UAE in recent weeks, targeting Abu Dhabi Airport and several important oil facilities. Within hours, a Saudi-led coalition bombed the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, killing 23 civilians. Both sides have threatened to escalate the conflict after seven years of war.
What are the options for the UAE and the Houthis?
This analytical site writes: What are the options for the UAE and the Houthis after the recent and sudden military confrontations? Will Abu Dhabi retreat again – as it claims to do in 2019 – or will it continue its costly proxy war through Yemeni mercenary armies? How will the Houthis respond to each of these scenarios?
Following the unexpected attack by the Yemeni Houthi Ansarullah resistance movement deep into the UAE using drones and ballistic missiles, two important questions arise. The first question concerns the real motives behind this new Ansarullah maneuver and the second question concerns the UAE’s response to this attack.
A decision that the Emirati people must make
Importantly, will this escalation of the conflict change strategy in the long run: Will Abu Dhabi rejoins the war after a three-year hiatus, or will it decide to withdraw altogether this time, including the withdrawal of proxy agents, in order to avoid incurring huge costs?
The Houthis, who in recent years have targeted several strategic economic and military sites inside Saudi Arabia with ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, have so far refused to target the UAE in retaliatory attacks. The UAE is playing a key role and a key partner in the Arab League’s invasion of Yemen, which Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman launched in March 2015, promising to enter Houthi-controlled Sanaa “as a conqueror.”
Why had Ansarullah not attacked the UAE so far?
The report stated: In response to the question as to why retaliation against the UAE had so far been neglected, sources close to the Houthis gave several reasons in this regard:
First, Ansarullah was reluctant to engage in two simultaneous battles – with Saudi Arabia and the UAE – in addition to a civil war with the UAE-backed Transitional Council of the South and the Saudi-backed Reform Party and Sharia Army.
Second, the Houthis had reached an implicit and unwritten agreement with the UAE, which can be summarized as follows: “We left the south to you, so you leave the north to us and do not interfere politically or militarily there … to stay safe.”
Bitter Emirates Options: Tolerate more Ansarullah attacks or accept defeat in Yemen / Will Israel be the next destination for missiles and drones?
Reasons for changing Ansarullah calculations
The following is the report: The UAE’s decisive return to the Yemeni war scene in recent months through its proxies, especially in the key areas of Shabwa, Ma’rib, and al-Bayda, has changed Ansarullah’s calculations. The UAE-backed “Monster Battalions” – led by the late Emirati-backed General Tariq Afsh’s nephew Ali Abdullah Saleh – disrupted all field equations along with other southern factions, preventing Ansarullah forces from advancing on these key fronts.
Read more: Ansarullah talks with a European official about the consequences of the Yemeni war on the humanitarian situation: https://www.paksahafat.com/en/?p=19771
Due to this escalation of the conflict by the UAE in recent weeks, Ansarullah lost some control over the oil-rich province of Shabwa and suffered heavy casualties among its forces. As a result, the paper turned in favor of the Saudi-backed forces known as the Sharia Army, and the intensity of the siege of these forces in Marib was reduced. Saudi Arabia was on the verge of defeat there.
The attack on the UAE was just a warning
Abdul Bari Atwan claimed: After days of hesitation during consultations in Tehran, Beirut, and among Yemeni tribal leaders, Ansarullah decided to send a strong message to the UAE. Ansarullah bombed the depths of the UAE in this regard, but deliberately reduced its intensity to send a warning message to Abu Dhabi. According to the above-mentioned Houthi sources, the message was: “You broke the covenant … If you come back, we will come back, and he who warns is excused (from giving further details).”
The UAE military response happened very soon. In less than 24 hours, the home of retired General Abdullah Qasim al-Junaid, president of the Yemeni Air College in the heart of Sanaa, home to three families, was bombed, killing for the first time in recent years some 23 civilians and killing dozens.
Two options for the UAE
In another part of this report, it is stated: Following the recent developments, the UAE is faced with two options. The first option is to revive the 2019 “ceasefire agreement” with the Houthis, thereby ordering its proxies to immediately withdraw from the battlefields of Shabwa, Ma’rib, and al-Bayda, and in the first instance to their former bases on the West Bank south of Hodeidah, and return near Bab al-Mandeb.
The second option is to send its proxies to the red lines of Ansar al-Islam and to participate fully and fully in the war in Yemen, thus strengthening the weakened military position of its ally Saudi Arabia. These are the same decisions that the UAE and Saudi Arabia implemented in the framework of the agreement reached during the visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Abu Dhabi before the Persian Gulf summit last December.
The second option may be much more costly, as the Houthis are likely to continue bombing the UAE in the form of stronger retaliatory attacks, targeting the country’s oil and tourism infrastructure, especially the airports and facilities of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, which is the Saudi stronghold of the UAE.
The Yemeni war entered a new phase
Ansarullah’s attempt to bomb the UAE with drones and missiles, while expected, was a new and dangerous development. This changed all the rules of the conflict and put the Yemeni war in a new phase in which it is very difficult to predict the developments.
The Kridel website concluded: This unprecedented bombardment deep in the UAE will accelerate the search for a solution to end the Yemeni war or intensify the conflict, expand its scope, and draw other regional parties tAnsarullaho the war. Newcomers may include resistance-oriented countries and arms, jihadists from around the world, Russia, China, and a more active presence of NATO member states – much like what happened in Syria. In any case, New Year’s surprises happened sooner than we thought.