An American think tank close to US intelligence sources in a report addressed key questions after the Taliban took control of Afghanistan.
The Stratfor Institute (close to US intelligence agencies) reported on possible scenarios for the situation in Afghanistan after the Taliban took control of Kabul and the escape of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani.
Former President Hamid Karzai, Abdullah Abdullah, chairman of the Afghan High Reconciliation Council, and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, former prime minister, are in talks with Taliban leaders to facilitate the transfer of power.
The report states that Taliban leaders have called on their members to deploy to security headquarters in Kabul but not to occupy homes or carry out retaliatory attacks. The Taliban has issued a general amnesty order for all government employees and foreign forces.
At the same time, looting of public and private property has been reported in some areas. The shooting at Kabul airport also disrupted flights and closed a number of Western embassies in Kabul. The United States has also asked its remaining citizens in Kabul to stay where they are until the status of the airport is determined.
Meanwhile, the Taliban is trying to present its account of its rise to power and describe it as its legitimate right, and this sends an important message to inside and outside Afghanistan.
The rapid progress of the Taliban was the reason for the collapse of the Afghan government, and in most cases the reason for this was the flight of local officials and military forces or the surrender of power to the Taliban. This situation was repeated many times until the Taliban took control of Kabul.
The main questions
The Stratfor think tank went on to write: As the Taliban seek an official account of its domination of Afghanistan and seek to gain domestic and international legitimacy, questions need to be answered in the coming days and weeks, answers that can clarify the situation in Afghanistan in the coming stages.
What will happen to the defeated military forces?
One of the questions is, where will these forces and their weapons go and what will happen after the collapse of Afghanistan’s security and military institutions? Are the troops fleeing Afghanistan? Or will they change their orientation? Or will they return to their ethnic and tribal affiliations and take over the leadership of local militias?
Stratfor emphasizes that Taliban domination of Afghanistan was the result of the collapse of the country’s security and military institutions, not necessarily the defeat of troops on the battlefield and if the security and military forces retain their weapons and transfer their allegiance to the Afghan government to allegiance to their people and tribes, then the threat of a civil war will weigh heavily on the Taliban, and these local militias may want to enlist the help of foreign powers to prevent the Taliban from establishing themselves. On the other hand, Afghanistan is still a tribal and racial community in which reconciliation is complex and requires a dominant power to function for a long time.
Will the Taliban give concessions to political groups?
Another question is what is the solution to Hamid Karzai, Abdullah Abdullah and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar in their talks with the Taliban?
Will the Taliban adhere to the current bureaucratic aspects in its efforts to gain domestic and international legitimacy, or will it give political concessions to local leaders to prevent a protracted civil war?
The tools and skills to seize power are different from the policies needed to maintain it, and the Taliban must henceforth work hard to maintain their dominance over Afghanistan and manage its complex scene.
If the Taliban wants to be recognized by the international community, it must have at least one limited trade with its neighbors, and therefore needs a bureaucracy.
If the Taliban pursues a mechanism for power-sharing, it could reduce the possibility of staying in power for a long time and preventing movements against them, but it still needs to make more political concessions.
Another question is whether the Taliban will facilitate the peaceful withdrawal of foreigners from Kabul after the transfer of power. If this group is looking for legitimacy, it must do so.
However, it is unclear to what extent the Taliban control the forces under their control and some Taliban members may want to exploit them by preventing foreign nationals from leaving.
Which countries will recognize the Taliban?
Another question is which countries are likely to recognize the government created by the Taliban? Is the Taliban’s ties with Beijing, Moscow, Tehran and the Arab Gulf states paving the way for the official or even informal identification of the group?
Pakistan has sent conflicting messages in this regard. But it is clear that the Taliban’s dominance in Afghanistan offers no other option for Islamabad and Afghanistan’s neighbors than to engage with the Taliban, even if they do not want to formally and diplomatically recognize the Taliban-controlled Afghan government.
If China and Russia recognize the Taliban, it will be a great victory for the group, as none of the permanent members of the UN Security Council recognized the Taliban rule in Afghanistan in the late 1990s.
According to Stratfor, China’s position on this issue must be closely monitored. Beijing has met with the Taliban and presented its demands to any government that comes to power in Afghanistan. One of Beijing’s main demands is to prevent the shelter of Uighur militants and to protect China’s commercial interests and infrastructure in Afghanistan, and to prevent insecurity on the borders of Central and South Asian countries so as not to obstruct the belt and road project.
The Stratfor think tank believes that China will recognize the Taliban against the wishes of Western countries. As previously recognized by the military government of Myanmar.
If the Taliban is identified by China, it must be said that the group will experience a major leap, but the Taliban must also make greater efforts to control extremist militants inside Afghanistan, which is not possible in a country like Afghanistan.
ISIL threat
The American think tank went on to ask what effect the Taliban’s domination of Afghanistan would have on groups such as al-Qaeda and ISIS (Khorasan province). Unconfirmed reports say the Taliban have released dozens of prisoners, including some members of ISIS.
The Taliban continue to use foreign fighters for their own purposes and have taken refuge in them in the past. However, he opposes the rise of ISIS in Afghanistan so that it does not become a rival.
According to Stratfor, if the Taliban wants to identify some countries in the world, or at least in the region, it will have to act quickly to suppress other armed militias and overcome possible unrest on the transition from movement to institutionalization.