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Friday, March 29, 2024

King Salman’s illness and the ambiguous fate of the transfer of power in Saudi Arabia / Is Biden thinking of a coup against Bin Salman?

In the wake of King Salman’s illness and the contradictory news in this regard, several questions are raised about the transfer of power in this country and Muhammad bin Salman’s scenarios for taking over his father’s throne.

According to Pak Sahafat News Agency International Group, the days that Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz spent in the hospital are enough to raise big questions about the future of the Saudi government; Especially since Saudi officials announced last Sunday that King Salman had been taken to hospital and would stay there for some time, there has been no new news about his health. Meanwhile, social media published several news items about King Salman’s physical condition, as well as behind the silence of Riyadh officials in this regard.

Saudi Arabia is now going through a critical phase in its history, characterized by the search for a successor to the king; at a time when relations between Riyadh and Washington are at an unprecedented level of tension and the Saudis can no longer rely on the United States for security. Also, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is now on the verge of a transfer of power. While outward signs indicate that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is on the verge of approaching his father’s throne, there is still much opposition to the transfer of power to the kingdom by the two main pillars of the Saudi government, Al Saud and the United States.

According to the Saudi royal court, the medical team decided to keep King Salman in the hospital for a while, and after the Riyadh authorities announced that the result of King Salman’s tests and colonoscopy was healthy, no news about the 86-year-old Saudi king’s physical condition has been provided since Sunday. But Khalid al-Jabri, the son of Saad al-Jabri, a former Saudi intelligence official known for his close ties to the US intelligence service, has made new remarks behind the scenes about Salman’s hospitalization and silence about his condition.

Khalid al-Jabri, a physician himself, says that colonoscopy rarely requires hospitalization, and that such a test is not usually recommended for people over 85 years of age. Therefore, it is likely that the test performed on Malik Salman was an emergency treatment to diagnose lower gastrointestinal bleeding, which necessitated his hospitalization. What reinforces this hypothesis is that King Salman was admitted to the hospital last March for medical tests and replacement of a “pacemaker” (heart battery), but was released immediately after the tests.

In the wake of the official silence of the Saudi royal court, the country’s social media published news about the king’s health and wishes for his health, which shows that the Saudis are worried about the transfer of power in this country. Especially after the challenges that Muhammad bin Salman created from the time of taking the throne with his famous coup against his cousin “Muhammad bin Nayef”, the former Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia in June 2017 and disintegrated Al Saud.

Observers believe that if the situation in Saudi Arabia was normal, the health of the king of this country would not matter much. In the past, in various Saudi governments, kings remained artificially incapable of fulfilling their duties. During this time the crown prince, usually the king’s brother, took over the day-to-day affairs of the country, and after the king’s death, power was slowly transferred to the crown prince.

Read more:

Riyadh Alliance with the United States and Zionism / Attack on Saudi Strategic Goals

In fact, in different periods of Al-Saud governments, the Crown Prince did not face any particular challenge among the Saudi dynasty; because according to the agreement, power was divided between the brothers and also a stable relationship with the United States was a guarantee for the transfer of power in Saudi Arabia. The situation is very different now, so that on the one hand, Muhammad bin Salman is trying to reach the throne of this country by breaking the tradition and coup against the Saudi princes, and on the other hand, there are possibilities that bin Salman may before the death of his father, he intends to seize his throne.

For this reason, King Salman’s physical condition is extremely important in the current period. As long as the king is alive, even if he is helpless, he will provide legitimate support for his son’s government, which will have far-reaching consequences for the Middle East as well as the global oil market during this turbulent period in the Ukraine-Russia crisis.

Indicators show that if the king is not released from the hospital in the coming days, it is possible that Muhammad bin Salman will take precautionary measures and seek to transfer the kingship to himself in the name of his father. Indicators show that if the king is not released from the hospital in the coming days, it is possible that Muhammad bin Salman will take precautionary measures and seek to transfer the kingship to himself in the name of his father. Many Saudi princes are still loyal to Muhammad bin Nayef and Prince Ahmad ibn Abdul Aziz, who are being detained on the orders of ibn Salman, and this poses a great threat to Muhammad bin Salman.

In general, the transfer of power in Saudi Arabia will be accompanied by a period of political instability, which takes place against the background of global instability. This is despite the fact that Muhammad bin Salman has taken a hostile stance towards Joe Biden. At present, the United States considers the policies of Mohammad bin Salman, especially in the field of refusing to increase oil production and emphasizing Riyadh’s alliance with Russia in OPEC Plus, to be a great danger. Mohammad bin Salman, on the other hand, is significantly closer to China, and this requires the Americans to take appropriate measures. The discussion of the passage of the Nupac bill in Congress and the possibility of imposing sanctions on Saudi Arabia and other OPEC member countries are within the framework of these US actions.

Another point to note is that the stability of US relations with Mohammed bin Salman in the past’s period was mainly due to his warm relations with former US President Donald Trump, during which the Saudi dollar treasury was opened to Trump. But the fact is that Muhammad bin Salman is basically unpopular in the intelligence circles and the US Department of Defense and State Department, as well as the National Security Council, and everyone prefers that Muhammad bin Nayef rule in Saudi Arabia.

So bin Salman may have felt dangerous; even with numerous offers to get American attention, including that it intends to strengthen Saudi Arabia’s relationship with the Zionist regime after reaching the kingdom. Some Saudi and UAE-affiliated media activists recently reported on a new deal between Mohammed bin Salman and Joe Biden, under which Biden agreed to extradite Saad al-Jabri to Riyadh, in response to a Saudi request for oil production.

However, some sources denied the news, stating that Saad al-Jabri is in Canada and that he is not in the United States to want a deal on him, and that Biden has no authority over him at all. But if this news is true, it practically means that the Biden government has accepted the rule of Muhammad bin Salman in Saudi Arabia. Nevertheless, there are still dangerous challenges facing the Saudi Crown Prince. In particular, the US government may take advantage of the current inflammatory situation in Saudi Arabia and stage a coup against Mohammed bin Salman’s powerful opponents, similar to the coup that Donald Trump and bin Salman launched against Mohammed bin Nayef.

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